September 17, 2021

Masjidal mukarramah

love gambling

College football gambling picks for Week 2

Bud’s Bets is my column about college football gambling.

I’ve had a strong few years including 55 percent against the spread in 2019 with an ROI of 5.1 percent. I had a poor 2020 with my pre-game wagers, though did turn a profit with second-half and live wagers. Be sure to follow the Cover 3 Podcast for more breakdown of the picks.

My strategy has been pretty simple: Make my own numbers using a combination of public and private power ratings, plus my own manual adjustments based on personnel, injuries, and matchup knowledge.

With my numbers set, the next step is being ready to fire on Sunday when the numbers come out on Sunday or Monday. Betting before the professionals who want to wager tens of thousands per game is normally an advantage because I am getting in before the huge money comes in and moves the line. Lines tend to be sharper later in the week and most of my wagers are made early in the week.

Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250-1000 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.

William Hill Sports Book is a reliable place to find odds.

Questions and live wagering

I’ll be answering any gambling related questions in the comment section throughout the week. Fire away. I’ll discuss games each week in the comment section of Bud’s Bets. I also post my live wagers and halftime wagers in the discussion section.

Season record

Overall: $2987, 39% ROI

Pre-Game ATS: 25-8 (76%), $1630, 44% ROI

Non-Spread: 1-0, $100, 48% ROI

In-game/live: 22-10, $1257, 34% ROI

Week 2

Picks made in the futures markets from my early wagers/Week 0 column.

Utah -6.5 at BYU. “BYU lost more production than just about any team in the nation, including QB Zach Wilson. But it also played an easy schedule in 2020, which may have resulted in a bit of an inflated record. I have Utah rated significantly higher than BYU on a neutral field, and believe Utah will be favored by more than a touchdown by kickoff.”

-Oregon at Ohio State -9. “ I think highly of Oregon, but the Ducks have questions in the secondary entering the season, and Ohio State has the best receiving corps in the country in my opinion. I believe this line should be more than two touchdowns and expect it to keep rising.”

Picks originally posted via Twitter on Sunday.

Pitt -2 at Tennessee. I think Pitt should be favored by about six or seven here, so anything under a field goal is absolutely a bit.

Iowa +4 at Iowa State. I am picking Iowa to win the game outright.

Texas -3.5 at Arkansas. Texas showed some explosive play capability and some physicality on defense against a solid ULL team. I like them at under a touchdown.

-Washington at Michigan -1. I do not think Michigan is all that good, but Washington looked terrible in losing to Montana and its offense is a wreck.

UTEP +27 at Boise State. This is a bit of a letdown spot for Boise State. I believe UTEP will be able to run the football.

NC State PK at Mississippi State. I have been on NC State all year, including the preseason and Week 1. I am on them here again at anything less than a touchdown.

-Liberty at Troy +6. Troy is an improved football team and I believe it can win the game outright.

Temple -6.5 at Akron. Separating terrible teams from bad teams is a key part of gambling, especially early in the season. Akron might be the worst team in the country, while Temple is merely bad according to my numbers.

UNLV +35 (-105) at Arizona State. UNLV lost to Eastern Washington in Week 1, but I make this number 31. Hold your nose and take the 35.

-Boston College at UMass +38. UMass is a bad team. Boston College is pretty good. But I make this number 32, so this is too much value to pass up.

New to column.

Missouri +5.5 (-102) at Kentucky. I believe Missouri can throw the ball well on Kentucky and be competitive. 

-Pitt at Tennessee Over 53. Tennessee plays with such extreme pace that this should be in the 60s.

-UTEP at Boise State -26 (-105). Playing out of the UTEP position on the news that RB Hankins is out for the Miners. 

-Kentucky/Missouri Over 54.5. I think both teams will throw better than last year.

Washington +7 at Michigan. This has drifted too much for my taste. 

Colorado Under 7.5 1H points (-125) hosting A&M. 

Ohio State team total Over 20.5 (-120) 1H. I like the odds of Ohio State getting six drives in the first half and don’t think much of Oregon’s secondary.

Cal/TCU Under 24.5 1H. I expect both teams to run the ball and play slowly.

Texas A&M -9 1H at Colorado. I expect A&M to look more crisp this weekend and play with intent.

-Akron Under 21.5 team total (+100). Akron’s offense is really not any good, Temple’s defense is not bad.

Texas A&M Team Total Over 33.5. I expect A&M to score. 

Washington at Michigan Under 24 1H total.